Foreign relations expert: War to come

By JENNIFER OCHSTEIN
Tribune Staff Writer

CULVER -- The United States will go to war with Iraq, said Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow and director of National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

He said whether the United States is going to war is a question many people are asking.   "Yes," said Korb in answer to the question. "President Bush has lit the fuse."

Korb, a guest lecturer invited to Culver Academy on Wednesday as part of the school's Global Studies Institute, spoke with students and faculty about "Our Global Strategy in the War Against Terrorism."

With the Bush administration in the White House, Korb said, the United States has begun taking a unilateral approach in its dealings with world countries.

He explained that the debate over whether this country's approach to other countries should be unilateral or multilateral has ebbed and surged, and the current debate has surged based on Bush's policies.

Bush's message to the world seems to be, "You need us more than we need you, so we're going to do what we think is right, and join if you want to," Korb said. He said Bush's unilateral stance began at the start of his presidency when he pulled the nation out of several pacts with nations around the world, including biological weapons protocols and an international criminal court.

Korb went on to explain that after Sept. 11, 2001, nations around the world rallied behind the United States, with NATO going as far as invoking Article Five of its charter for the first time in its history. Article Five states that an attack on one of the member countries is an attack on all the member countries.

He said Bush changed his tune to a multilateral approach.

"The war on terror cannot be won unilaterally," Korb said, noting that the U.S. would need cooperation from other countries to seize the financing of terrorists and make arrests.

He said from Sept. 11, 2001, to January 2002 it looked as though the Bush administration was going to stay multilateral.

But during Bush's State of the Union Address in 2002 "Bush changed the war on terror," Korb said, when he named Iraq, Iran and North Korea the Axis of Evil.

"He changed the war on terror," Korb said, noting the war began with tackling terrorist groups with a global reach.

Then, he said, Bush went from wanting to rid the world of all terrorism, which Korb said is nearly unattainable, to the daunting task of completely ridding the world of evil.

"There's no way we're going to get rid of evil," Korb said.

Korb said Bush's listing of an Axis of Evil in his speech showed a shift back to unilateralism.

He further explained the reason Democrats, who are historically multilateral in their thinking, have failed to opposed Bush's policy. The reason is that they're "scared of being branded soft on criminals and soft on defense."

Now is the time the United States needs debate regarding the issue, Korb said.

However, Korb explained, Bush seemingly moved back to a stance of multilateralism when during a speech to the United Nations in September 2002, he told the body that Iraq was defying its orders to allow for inspections and the destruction of banned weapons. At that point, Korb said, the United Nations voted to send inspectors back into Iraq.

"Saddam Hussein has handled this very cleverly," Korb told students and faculty, noting he hasn't complied the way he should, but he's cooperated to some extent, which is why the U.S. has found it difficult to get full U.N. support.

Korb also said he believes Bush has been sending mixed signals to the world by calling Iraq, Iran and North Korea the Axis of Evil and then trying to deal with recent nuclear problems with North Korea diplomatically and multilaterally.

Korb listed Bush's foreign policy, in part, as reasons he believed the U.S. would go to war with Iraq.

Bush's National Security Strategy, outlined in a 31-page document, which by law must be submitted by an acting president, tells point blank what Bush's foreign policy is for the year, Korb said.

In the document, Korb said, Bush writes doctrines used to win the Cold War -- determent and containment -- no longer apply. Korb said Bush wrote preventative war must be used, and those states supporting terrorists will be opposite of the preventative war. Korb said the U.S. will decide what constitutes a terrorist.

Bush wrote in his 2002 National Security Strategy, "Traditional concepts of deterrence will not work against a terrorist enemy whose avowed tactics are wanton destruction and the targeting of innocents; whose so-called soldiers seek martyrdom in death and whose most potent protection is statelessness. The overlap between states that sponsor terror and those that pursue WMD (weapons of mass destruction) compels us to action."

Bush further wrote, "To support preemptive options, we will: build better, more integrated intelligence capabilities to provide timely, accurate information on threats, wherever they may emerge; coordinate closely with allies to form a common assessment of the most dangerous threats; and continue to transform our military forces to ensure our ability to conduct rapid and precise operations to achieve decisive results."

Bush also writes that he will use a multilateral approach in his dealings with other countries.

However, Korb said, Bush also wants to maintain military dominance over every country in the world so no nation will challenge the U.S. This military might is to rid the world of terrorism while aggressively promoting democracy and free trade around the world.

Bush also wrote in his strategy, "We will promote economic growth and economic freedom beyond America's shores. All governments are responsible for creating their own economic policies and responding to their own economic challenge. We will use our economic engagement with other countries to underscore the benefits of policies that generate higher productivity and sustained economic growth."

Korb said Bush indicated in a speech just last week that the U.S. wants to oust Hussein, bring democracy to Iraq, allowing all other Arab countries a peek at the system, likely causing Arab nations to institute democracies.

Bush has a "unilateral and aggressive view of the world," Korb said.